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香港 2010年02月22日 |
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中國銀行（3988.HK） ——利潤穩定增長 |
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根據中國銀行的2009年前3季度的業績報告，中國銀行（以下簡稱“中行”或“集團”）的業績增長符合我們的預期。 截止2009年9月末，歸屬集團股東的淨利潤達622.30億人民幣，同比由上半年的負增長變為略升3.82%。顯示集團的利潤保持穩定增長趨勢。同時集團貸款仍保持迅猛增長，貸款淨額較2008年末增長43.98%，增速居四大國有銀行之首。 不過，由於大量貸款投放，使中行的資金壓力逐步上升，資本充足率在2009年9月末為11.63%，較2008年末大幅下降了1.80個百分點，在行業中處於偏低水準。由於銀監會在2009年末上調了大銀行的資本充足率要求，使中行面臨較大的融資需求，而1月末其宣佈的400億元人民幣A股可轉債計畫則將有力緩解集團的資金壓力。我們預計2010年中行可能將會以配售方式在H股進行融資計畫，以滿足其資本需求。 總體看，我們對中國銀行未來12個月的盈利狀況仍持樂觀態度。預計2009年其股東淨利潤約為人民幣806億元左右，每股淨利潤0.32元。 我們維持中國銀行“買入”評級，維持其12個月目標價為5.02港元，較現價有約31.41%的溢價,為2010年每股淨資產的2.0倍及每股收益的10.7倍。 盈利增長穩定 截至2009年9月末，中國銀行的淨利息收入約1156.10億元人民幣，同比下降5.43%。歸屬於集團股東的淨利潤達622.30億人民幣，同比上升了3.82%，基本符合我們的預期。 從利潤增長的情況看，中國銀行的盈利增長穩定。雖然受2008年全球金融危機影響，集團的利潤在2009年初出現大幅下滑，但其季度增速自2009年1季度開始持續收窄。淨利潤同比增速在2009年前3季度分別為-14.41%、-2.51%及3.82%。說明2009年中行的盈利狀況已經逐季出現明顯好轉。 |
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表1：2009年9月末4大國有銀行淨利息收入同比增長比較
(資料來源：公司資料，Phillip Securities) |
值得注意的是，由於2008年第4季度基數較低，我們預計2009年第4季度集團的淨利潤同比增長率將大幅提高，而2009年全年中行的淨利潤預計同比將增長約25%至人民幣805.6億元。 圖1：中國銀行淨利潤增長情況
(資料來源：公司報告, Phillip Securities) 總體看，中行盈利穩定回升的主要原因之一是淨利息收入的穩定回升。 2009年上半年，集團的淨利息收入同比下降了8.34%，而到第3季度末，其同比降幅已收窄至5.43%，在4大國有上市銀行中降幅最小。我們預計全年集團的淨利息收入將較2008年將小幅下降1.4%左右。 圖2：中國銀行淨利息收入增長情況
(資料來源：公司報告, Phillip Securities) 此外，中國銀行的非利息收入保持逐季回升的趨勢。截至2009年9月末，中國銀行實現非利息收入531.50億元人民幣，同比下滑3.81%，較上半年大幅收窄了7.46個百分點。非利息收入占盈利收入的比重也由2008年底的28.82%上升至2009年第3季度末的31.49%。 考慮到2009年中國經濟的強勁復蘇及股市回暖，集團的證券投資收益等非利息收入的增速出現明顯反彈，因此我們認為2009及10年集團的非利息收入將出現明顯回升。預計2009年全年中行的非利息收入將達到人民幣709.28億元，同比2008年上升7.53%。2010年其非利息收入同比將增長約14%左右。 圖3：中國銀行非利息收入增長情況
(資料來源：公司報告, Phillip Securities) 貸款增長強勁 毫無疑問，2009年中國銀行業的信貸規模實現超常規增長。其中，中國銀行的貸款規模增長在四大國有銀行中居首。截至到2009年9月末，其內地機構人民幣貸款較2008年末增長約45%至3.39萬億元人民幣。 圖4：2009年第3季度末中國內地上市銀行客戶貸款增長情況
(資料來源：公司報告, Phillip Securities) 另外，中行的總資產較2008年末上升約20%至8.34萬億元人民幣。其中客戶貸款總額約4.70萬億元人民幣，較2008年末大幅上升了42.63%。同時，客戶貸款占總資產的比值約56.35%，較2008年末上升了8.87個百分點。 我們預計，2009年中國銀行的總資產將較2008年上升25.5%至人民幣8.72萬億元，貸款淨額將達到4.7萬億左右的水準，較2008年增加47%左右。 圖5：中國銀行總資產及客戶貸款增長情況
(資料來源：公司報告, Phillip Securities) 貸款品質持續改善 在中行的貸款規模大幅上揚的同時，其貸款品質也在改善。截至到2009年9月末，集團的信貸成本為0.35%，較2008年末下降了0.08個百分點。根據國際會計準則，中國銀行的已識別減值貸款總額約764.79億元人民幣，減值貸款率持續下降至1.63%，較2008年末大幅下降了1.13個百分點，我們預計2009年末集團的減值貸款總額及減值貸款率將進一步下降。 圖6：中國銀行信貸成本及減值貸款率變化
(資料來源：公司報告, Phillip Securities) 資本需求較大 另一方面，我們也注意到，中行貸款規模的大幅增長也導致其面臨更大的資本壓力。截至2009年第3季度末，中行的核心資本充足率及資本充足率為9.37%及11.63%， 分別較2008年末下降了1.44及1.88個百分點。其資本充足率在中資銀行中處於較低水準。 同時，2009年末銀監會上調大銀行的資本充足率水準至11%，再考慮到2010年上市銀行的貸款規模仍將保持快速增長態勢，因此，中行的融資需求較為迫切。 圖7：2009年3季度末中資上市銀行資本充足率
(資料來源：公司報告, Phillip Securities) 有鑒於此，中行在2010年1月底宣佈將在A股發行價值人民幣400億的可轉換公司債券，發行期限為發行之日起6年，票面利率不超過3%。該筆融資將有助於提高集團的資本充足率，確保資產的穩定擴張。 表2：2010年1月22日中國銀行公佈的可轉債主要內容
(資料來源：公司資料，Phillip Securities) 總體看，中行此次可轉債的發行對內地可轉債市場將產生巨大影響。目前，國內可轉債市場的存量規模大約在人民幣100億左右。如果中行可轉債順利發行400億的話，將使整個可轉債市場規模急劇擴張至人民幣500億元左右的水準，短期內必然會對市場造成巨大的衝擊。 風險 貸款大幅上升，不良貸款數量上升，從而影響中國銀行的貸款品質； 大量融資攤薄股東投資收益； 中國銀行的H股股價短期面臨較大波動。 估值 總體看，中國銀行的盈利出現穩定，同時資產品質持續改善。可轉債的順利發行將緩解集團的資本壓力。我們仍採用分部加總法進行估值，維持2009年中銀內地及中銀香港的市淨率分別約為2倍及1.8倍，集團的合理估值約為5.02港元。 鑒於中國銀行的業績穩定回升，以及近期股價已經大幅下降，我們維持中國銀行12個月目標價5.02港元，較最新收盤價3.82港元有約31.41%的溢價，為2010年每股收益的11倍，相當於2009年市淨率2.2倍及2010年市淨率2.1倍。維持中國銀行“買入”評級。 圖8： 中國銀行市淨率及市盈率
(資料來源：公司資料，Phillip Securities) |
財務資料
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資產負債表（人民幣百萬元） |
2006A |
2007A |
2008A |
2009E |
2010E |
|
現金及存放同業 |
39,812 |
71,221 |
72,533 |
99,557 |
100,553 |
|
存放中央銀行款項 |
379,631 |
751,344 |
1,207,613 |
1,186,250 |
1,245,563 |
|
拆放同業 |
399,138 |
386,648 |
488,465 |
448,183 |
470,593 |
|
客戶貸款及墊款淨額 |
2,337,726 |
2,754,493 |
3,189,652 |
4,680,211 |
5,429,045 |
|
投資 |
1,776,654 |
1,588,262 |
1,558,394 |
1,846,873 |
2,043,081 |
|
固定資產 |
86,200 |
83,805 |
92,236 |
105,612 |
116,173 |
|
投資物業 |
8,221 |
9,986 |
9,637 |
15,482 |
17,030 |
|
遞延稅資產 |
21,396 |
17,647 |
17,405 |
29,829 |
35,795 |
|
其他資產 |
53,570 |
73,638 |
69,913 |
114,079 |
131,190 |
|
資產合計 |
5,327,653 |
5,991,217 |
6,951,680 |
8,716,831 |
9,794,914 |
|
同業存放 |
178,777 |
324,848 |
603,393 |
500,151 |
525,159 |
|
對中央銀行負債 |
42,374 |
90,485 |
55,596 |
75,409 |
84,458 |
|
發行貨幣債務 |
36,823 |
32,605 |
32,064 |
35,906 |
39,497 |
|
客戶存款 |
4,091,118 |
4,400,111 |
5,102,111 |
6,698,014 |
7,635,736 |
|
發行債券 |
60,173 |
64,391 |
65,393 |
88,157 |
83,749 |
|
應付所得稅項 |
18,149 |
21,045 |
24,827 |
19,848 |
20,444 |
|
遞延所得稅負債 |
3,029 |
2,894 |
2,093 |
3,012 |
3,042 |
|
其他負債 |
153,456 |
182,843 |
198,730 |
198,067 |
221,835 |
|
負債合計 |
4,914,697 |
5,540,560 |
6,461,793 |
8,182,683 |
9,227,681 |
|
本行股東應占權益 |
382,917 |
420,430 |
464,258 |
506,213 |
538,582 |
|
所有者權益合計 |
412,956 |
450,657 |
489,887 |
534,148 |
567,234 |
|
所有者權益及負債合計 |
5,327,653 |
5,991,217 |
6,951,680 |
8,716,831 |
9,794,914 |
|
損益表（人民幣百萬元） |
2006A |
2007A |
2008A |
2009E |
2010E |
|
淨利息收入 |
121,371 |
152,745 |
162,936 |
160,631 |
200,789 |
|
淨手續費及傭金收入 |
14,323 |
35,535 |
39,947 |
43,615 |
47,976 |
|
營業總收入 |
148,424 |
194,975 |
228,896 |
231,559 |
281,541 |
|
資產減值準備 |
-12,342 |
-20,263 |
-45,031 |
-20,162 |
-22,178 |
|
營業利潤 |
67,351 |
89,434 |
86,453 |
111,029 |
143,940 |
|
聯營及合營企業投資淨收益 |
632 |
1263 |
726 |
1,050 |
1,050 |
|
稅前利潤 |
67,983 |
90,697 |
87,179 |
112,079 |
144,990 |
|
所得稅 |
-19,673 |
-28,661 |
-21,285 |
-28,020 |
-36,247 |
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實際所得稅率 |
29.21% |
32.05% |
24.62% |
25.00% |
25.00% |
|
年度淨利潤 |
48,310 |
62,036 |
65,894 |
84,059 |
108,742 |
|
少數股東權益 |
5,434 |
5,788 |
1,534 |
3,500 |
3,850 |
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銀行權益股東應占淨利潤 |
42,876 |
56,248 |
64,360 |
80,559 |
104,892 |
|
已宣派及分派股利 |
10,154 |
25,384 |
32,999 |
40,280 |
52,446 |
|
每股數據 |
2006A |
2007A |
2008A |
2009E |
2010E |
|
基本每股盈利(RMB) |
0.18 |
0.22 |
0.25 |
0.32 |
0.41 |
|
每股股息(RMB) |
0.04 |
0.10 |
0.13 |
0.16 |
0.21 |
|
每股淨資產(RMB) |
1.51 |
1.66 |
1.83 |
1.99 |
2.12 |
|
財務指標 |
2006A |
2007A |
2008A |
2009E |
2010E |
|
市盈率 (倍) |
18.1 |
14.7 |
12.8 |
10.3 |
7.9 |
|
市淨率 (倍) |
2.2 |
2.0 |
1.8 |
1.6 |
1.5 |
|
派息率 |
23.68% |
45.13% |
51.27% |
50.00% |
50.00% |
|
股息收益率 |
1.23% |
3.07% |
3.99% |
4.88% |
6.35% |
|
淨利息收益率 |
2.45% |
2.76% |
2.63% |
2.10% |
2.16% |
|
貸存比 |
59.45% |
64.78% |
64.60% |
67.27% |
69.12% |
|
成本收入比率 |
42.07% |
39.26% |
37.59% |
37.21% |
36.84% |
|
平均總資產回報率 |
0.96% |
1.10% |
1.02% |
1.03% |
1.13% |
|
平均所有者權益回報率 |
14.06% |
14.00% |
14.55% |
15.73% |
19.05% |
|
不良貸款比率 |
4.04% |
3.12% |
2.65% |
1.71% |
1.54% |
|
核心資本充足率 |
11.44% |
10.67% |
10.81% |
9.34% |
9.06% |
PHILLIP RESEARCH STOCK SELECTION SYSTEMS
We do not base our
recommendations entirely on the above quantitative return bands. We consider qualitative factors like
(but not limited to) a stock's risk reward profile, market sentiment, recent
rate of share price appreciation, presence or absence of stock price
catalysts, and speculative undertones surrounding the stock, before making
our final recommendation |
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