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香港 |
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招商銀行（3968.HK） --- 盈利持續增長 資本壓力有所緩解 |
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招商銀行（以下簡稱“招行”或“集團”）的盈利增長回升穩定。截至2009年第3季度末，招行的淨利潤同比下降31.16%達人民幣130.78億元，但降幅較2009年上半年收窄了6.46個百分點。 由於2009年國內銀行零售業務環境的持續低迷，招行的盈利增長在前3季度雖有改善，但總體仍呈按年同比下降的趨勢。同時信貸的大幅增長也使銀行的資本金流出過快，資本充足率較2008年末下降了0.8個百分點。 不過，總體看，招商銀行仍保持較穩定的盈利增長及在國內銀行零售業務方面的領先地位。 同時，近期招行宣佈在A+H股配股融資220億元，將有效緩解其資本壓力。因此，我們對招商銀行未來的盈利增長仍持較樂觀態度，維持招商銀行“買入”評級，其12個月目標價為24.81港元，較最新收盤價有22%的溢價。 中間業務增速逐步回升 總體上招商銀行的利潤在2009年前3季度按年同比仍呈較大降幅，但同時又出現按季回升的態勢。 具體看，截至2009年9月末，集團的淨利息收入與淨利潤分別同比下降約19%及31%達人民幣290.07億及130.78億元，其降幅分別較2009年上半年末收窄了4個百分點及7個百分點。 淨利息收入與淨利潤穩步回升的主要原因是由於2009年中國經濟及股票市場的明顯復蘇，使招行的中間業務保持穩定回升態勢。 其中，截至2009年第3季度末，集團的淨手續費及傭金收入達人民幣61.78億元，同比增幅由2009年6月末的-1.27%上升至5.46%，增長了6.73個百分點。 此外，我們也可以看到淨手續費及傭金收入占營業收入的比重上升至16.33%。 |
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圖1：招商銀行歷年淨手續費及傭金收入增長情況
(資料來源：公司資料，Phillip
Securities) 由於招商銀行2008年同期的業績基數較大，導致2009年的淨利潤同比增長率在前3季度仍處於大幅下滑區間，按中國會計準則，其同比增長率在同業中降幅最大。 圖2：2009年第3季度末14家中國上市銀行淨利潤增長
(資料來源：公司資料，Phillip
Securities) 2009年前3季度招商銀行淨利潤持續下降的主要原因是淨息差的下降，使集團的淨利息收入持續下降。2009年上半年，招行的淨息差為2.24%，而到第3季度末則繼續下降至2.21%。淨利息收入同比下降約19%。 我們預計招行的利潤增速已經開始逐步回升。2009年全年，招行的淨利息收入預計將同比下降約13%至人民幣406億元。而集團淨利潤則將同比下降約19%至人民幣169.55億元。 圖3：招商銀行淨利息收入及淨利潤增長情況
(資料來源：公司資料，Phillip
Securities) 資產規模增速持續反彈 招商銀行的資產規模保持穩定增長態勢。截止2009年9月末，招行總資產突破2萬億大關，上升至人民幣2.02萬億元，比2008年末增長28.32%，較2009年上半年的同比增速上升了2.81個百分點。其中，集團淨資產約達人民幣875.05億元，同比2008年末增長約9.68%。 我們預計2009年招行的總資產將達到人民幣2.1萬億元左右的水準，其中淨資產將較2008年末增長約19%至人民幣947.66億元。 圖4：招商銀行總資產增長情況
(資料來源：公司資料，Phillip Securities) 貸款增長迅猛 從2009年前3季度的資料看，招商銀行的貸款增長迅猛。截至2009年第3季度末，集團的貸款及墊款淨額達人民幣1.146萬億元，比2008年末大幅上漲了34.38%，較2009年上半年的增速上升了2.08個百分點。 同時，集團的存款也大幅增長，但增幅小於同期的貸款增速，2009年9月末其存款較2008年末增長26.61%至人民幣1.583萬億元。 圖5：招商銀行貸款及存款增長
(資料來源：公司資料，Phillip Securities) 資產品質進一步提高 在貸款迅猛增長的同時，招商銀行的資產品質進一步提高。其不良貸款比率持續保持下降趨勢。截至2009年9月末，招行的不良貸款餘額約人民幣97.33億元，較2008年末增加了0.56億元。不良貸款比率較2008年末大幅下降0.28個百分點至0.83%。 同時，相比其他內地上市銀行，招商銀行採取更為保守的策略，其撥備覆蓋率在同業中保持最高水準，2009年9月末達到245.10%，較2008年末上升了21.81個百分點。 圖6：2009年9月末內地上市銀行撥備覆蓋率比較
(資料來源：公司資料，Phillip Securities) 資本壓力較大 值得注意的是，雖然交行的資產品質仍持續改善，但由於大規模的信貸增長，資本流出過快，造成其資本充足率下降。截至2009年9月末，集團的資本充足率為10.54%，較2008年末下降了0.8個百分點。在所有上市銀行中處於中等水準。 圖7：2009年9月末內地上市銀行資本充足率比較
(資料來源：公司資料，Phillip Securities) 由於較大的資本壓力，2010年2月22日，招行通過其A+H股配股方案，A+H股的配股比例為每10股配1.3股，配股金額不超過220億元。 如果按照融資的上限220億元計算，在目前招行總股本191.19億股的基礎上，我們測算其總配股的數量約在24.86億股，相對應的配股價約人民幣8.85元，大約相當於10.05港元。 由於配股的價格較低，對現有股東的吸引力較強，因此我們估計招行所有的現有股東可能都將參與配股，否則，其股權將由於配股而遭到攤薄。因此，如果我們假設現有股東均參加此次配股的話，那麼配股前後對原有股東並無影響，因其持有股票的比例將不會出現變化。
風險 零售業務及中間業務收入下降； 淨息差維持較低水準，影響利息收入。 估值 總體看，招行的息差繼續收窄，淨利息收入持續下降，我們預計在2009年招商銀行的利潤仍將保持負增長的趨勢，但降幅在不斷收窄。 由於招商銀行的零售業務仍保持較為穩定的增長，且資產品質持續改善，考慮到近期的配股計畫將有效緩解其資本壓力，因此我們對集團的未來發展仍抱樂觀態度。 我們估計2009年招商銀行的淨利潤約達人民幣170億元，同比將下降約19%，但由於基礎較低的原因，2010年將出現明顯回升，淨利潤預計將同比上升約31%達人民幣222億元左右。 我們給予招商銀行12個月目標價24.81港元, 較最新收盤價20.30港元有約22%溢價，為2010年每股收益的19倍，相當於2010年市淨率為4倍。 圖8：招商銀行P/B與P/E
(資料來源：Bloomberg，Phillip Securities) |
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財務資料
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資產負債表（人民幣百萬元） |
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2009E |
2010E |
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現金及存放同業和其他金融機構款項 |
20,861.00 |
20,276.00 |
37,016.00 |
30,634.40 |
32,166.12 |
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存放中央銀行款項 |
82,372.00 |
146,266.00 |
174,673.00 |
247,878.75 |
322,242.38 |
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拆放同業和其他金融機構款項 |
88,171.00 |
225,669.00 |
156,378.00 |
62,115.75 |
68,327.33 |
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客戶貸款及墊款 |
549,420.00 |
654,417.00 |
852,754.00 |
1,184,621.55 |
1,540,008.02 |
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固定資產 |
7,376.00 |
8,722.00 |
15,062.00 |
11,484.55 |
10,910.32 |
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無形資產 |
0.00 |
518.00 |
2,381.00 |
2,402.00 |
2,450.04 |
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遞延稅資產 |
2,260.00 |
2,162.00 |
2,521.00 |
2,647.05 |
2,911.76 |
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其他資產 |
4,757.00 |
9,075.00 |
10,566.00 |
10,037.70 |
11,543.36 |
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資產合計 |
934,102.00 |
1,310,964.00 |
1,571,797.00 |
2,098,173.96 |
2,623,197.75 |
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同業和其他金融機構存放款項 |
68,854.00 |
218,520.00 |
115,792.00 |
156,332.70 |
164,149.34 |
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同業和其他金融機構拆入款項 |
7,749.00 |
46,603.00 |
50,124.00 |
27,453.60 |
28,826.28 |
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客戶存款 |
773,757.00 |
943,534.00 |
1,250,648.00 |
1,694,750.20 |
2,152,332.75 |
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應付所得稅項 |
2,652.00 |
2,588.00 |
2,956.00 |
3,801.00 |
4,941.30 |
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遞延所得稅負債 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
848.00 |
926.16 |
1,018.78 |
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其他負債 |
11,145.00 |
14,190.00 |
26,752.00 |
23,158.10 |
30,105.53 |
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已發行次級定期債務 |
3,500.00 |
3,500.00 |
33,440.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
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負債合計 |
878,942.00 |
1,242,980.00 |
1,492,016.00 |
2,003,407.64 |
2,492,533.99 |
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所有者權益合計 |
55,160.00 |
67,984.00 |
79,781.00 |
94,766.32 |
130,663.77 |
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所有者權益及負債合計 |
934,102.00 |
1,310,964.00 |
1,571,797.00 |
2,098,173.96 |
2,623,197.75 |
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損益表（人民幣百萬元） |
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2009E |
2010E |
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淨利息收入 |
21,508.96 |
33,902.00 |
46,885.00 |
39643.5 |
53423.103 |
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淨手續費及傭金收入 |
2,513.93 |
6,439.00 |
7,744.00 |
8,086.16 |
9,462.59 |
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營業總收入 |
24,865.89 |
41,048.00 |
55,644.00 |
50,773.71 |
66,538.56 |
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經營費用 |
(11,090.52) |
(16,738.00) |
(23,636.00) |
(25,050.60) |
(33,664.48) |
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扣除準備金前的營業利潤 |
13,775.37 |
24,310.00 |
31,902.00 |
25,675.71 |
32,898.26 |
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資產減值準備 |
(3,691.34) |
(3,305.00) |
(5,154.00) |
(3,145.25) |
(3,459.78) |
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稅前利潤 |
10,084.03 |
21,043.00 |
26,759.00 |
22,530.46 |
29,438.48 |
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所得稅 |
(3,289.60) |
(5,800.00) |
(5,813.00) |
(5,575.35) |
(7,247.96) |
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實際所得稅率 |
32.62% |
27.56% |
21.72% |
24.75% |
24.62% |
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年度淨利潤 |
6,794.43 |
15,243.00 |
20,946.00 |
16,955.11 |
22,190.53 |
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少數股東權益 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
(131.00) |
0.00 |
0.00 |
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銀行權益股東應占淨利潤 |
6,794.43 |
15,243.00 |
21,077.00 |
16,955.11 |
22,190.53 |
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已宣派及分派股利 |
1,764.00 |
4,117.00 |
5,883.00 |
5086.53 |
6657.16 |
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每股數據 |
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2009E |
2010E |
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基本每股盈利(RMB) |
0.53 |
1.04 |
1.43 |
0.89 |
1.03 |
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每股股息(RMB) |
0.12 |
0.28 |
0.40 |
0.27 |
0.31 |
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每股淨資產(RMB) |
3.75 |
4.62 |
5.42 |
4.96 |
6.05 |
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財務指標 |
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2009E |
2010E |
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市盈率 (倍) |
43.43 |
22.23 |
16.08 |
24.08 |
17.92 |
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市淨率 (倍) |
6.14 |
4.98 |
4.25 |
4.71 |
3.69 |
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派息率 |
25.96% |
27.01% |
27.91% |
30.00% |
30.00% |
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股息收益率 |
0.52% |
1.22% |
1.74% |
1.15% |
1.34% |
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淨利差 |
2.69% |
2.96% |
3.24% |
2.11% |
2.32% |
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淨利息收益率 |
2.72% |
3.11% |
3.42% |
2.19% |
2.25% |
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貸存比 |
75.73% |
71.30% |
68.18% |
69.90% |
65.53% |
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成本收入比率 |
38.28% |
34.94% |
36.55% |
38.38% |
38.38% |
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平均總資產回報率 |
0.81% |
1.36% |
1.46% |
0.98% |
1.01% |
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平均所有者權益回報率 |
16.74% |
24.76% |
28.58% |
20.01% |
21.01% |
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不良貸款比率 |
2.12% |
1.54% |
1.11% |
0.81% |
0.78% |
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撥備覆蓋率 |
135.61% |
180.39% |
223.29% |
245.62% |
245.62% |
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核心資本充足率 |
9.58% |
8.78% |
6.56% |
8.20% |
9.02% |
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資本充足率 |
11.39% |
10.40% |
11.34% |
12.13% |
12.74% |
PHILLIP RESEARCH STOCK SELECTION SYSTEMS
We do not base our
recommendations entirely on the above quantitative return bands. We consider qualitative factors like
(but not limited to) a stock's risk reward profile, market sentiment, recent
rate of share price appreciation, presence or absence of stock price
catalysts, and speculative undertones surrounding the stock, before making
our final recommendation |
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